338canada com
Welcome to 338Canada.com: The Go-To Forecasting Model for Canadian Elections
If you're trying to make sense of Canadian politics beyond hot takes and party spin, 338Canada is where you look. It’s not just about who's ahead in the polls — it’s about where, by how much, and what that means riding by riding.
What is 338Canada?
338Canada is a detailed, data-driven electoral projection model built for Canadian politics. It analyzes opinion polls, demographic profiles, and electoral history to forecast how each of Canada’s 338 federal ridings might vote. The site was created by Philippe J. Fournier, a physicist by training and political analyst by instinct.
Since launching in 2017, 338Canada has evolved into one of the most closely watched tools for interpreting Canadian elections — federal and provincial alike. It functions like Canada’s version of FiveThirtyEight, but tailored to the country’s unique political geography.
How It Works: A Closer Look at the Model
Poll aggregation
338Canada doesn't rely on a single poll. It aggregates multiple surveys, weighting them by:
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Sample size (larger samples carry more weight)
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Recency (newer polls matter more)
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Track record (pollsters are rated for reliability and accuracy)
A national poll showing the Liberals at 43% doesn’t just sit at face value. It gets blended with regional breakdowns, past data, and adjusted based on how trustworthy the pollster is considered.
Proportional swing model
Here’s where it gets granular. Say the Conservatives gain 5 points nationally. That doesn’t mean every riding moves identically. Instead, the model distributes that swing proportionally — and then fine-tunes it with demographic and historical data.
In other words, it doesn’t treat a suburban riding in Mississauga the same as a rural one in Alberta, even if the national numbers are identical.
Local candidate impact
Star candidates matter. If a well-known figure is running — say, a former cabinet minister or someone with strong local popularity — the model bumps up their chances in that riding. It doesn’t pretend that every name on a ballot is just a statistic.
Demographics & boundaries
This is where 338Canada really earns its credibility. It incorporates census data like income, education, age, language, and immigration levels — all factors that heavily influence how ridings vote.
It also adjusts for redrawn boundaries, which often shift the political math. When ridings change, voting behavior does too.
What You Can Find on 338Canada
Live projections
The main page gives you updated projections of national popular vote, seat counts, and the probability of each party winning the most seats. These change weekly — or more often — as new polls come in.
Example (Sept 2025):
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Liberal Party: 43%
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Conservative Party: 40%
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NDP: 8%
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Bloc Québécois: 7% in Quebec
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Greens: 3%
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PPC: 1%
These numbers are shown with confidence intervals, not just point estimates. So you see not just who’s ahead, but by how much — and how uncertain the race really is.
Riding-level detail
Click on any riding and you'll find the projected vote share for each party, historical results, and the model’s confidence in who wins. It’s like looking under the hood of the national result.
Say you're curious about Carleton in Ontario. The site shows whether it's leaning Conservative, Liberal, or a toss-up — and explains why.
Provincial breakdowns
Beyond federal numbers, 338Canada tracks provincial elections too: Ontario, Alberta, Quebec, B.C., and others. Each province has its own political landscape, and the model adapts to those dynamics.
Interactive simulators
Want to play political analyst? You can tweak national poll numbers and see how it changes the seat projection. Great for testing scenarios: What if the NDP surged 5 points? What happens if the Bloc collapses?
Strengths of 338Canada
Transparency
The methodology is laid out clearly. From how polls are weighted to how demographic factors are modeled, nothing is hidden behind a paywall or vague explanation.
Accuracy
In recent elections, 338Canada has consistently outperformed basic poll averages. In the 2025 Ontario general election, for example, it correctly projected 53 of 53 “safe” ridings, 25 of 27 “likely” ones, and held a 71% accuracy rate on “leaning” seats — better than random guesswork by a mile.
Adaptability
When party systems shift or political waves hit, the model updates fast. It can recalibrate expectations when a new leader enters or a party realigns — something static averages can’t do.
Public trust
With a growing social media following and regular features in major Canadian publications, 338Canada has built a strong reputation. It’s not a political tool. It’s a statistical one.
Weaknesses & Criticism
Polling bias
Polls aren’t perfect. If the entire polling industry misses a trend — like underestimating rural Conservative turnout — 338Canada’s model will miss it too. The model can only work with the inputs it gets.
Subjectivity in pollster ratings
While the site explains how pollsters are weighted, some critics argue that personal judgment plays a role. If one pollster is routinely down-weighted, it can shape the output more than it should.
Local volatility
No model can fully predict last-minute local events — like a candidate scandal or viral moment. In close races, even a few hundred votes can swing the result.
Why It Matters
338Canada helps raise the level of political conversation in Canada. Instead of obsessing over a single poll or news cycle, it invites a broader, more measured look at trends.
It’s especially valuable in a fragmented media environment. Instead of tribalism or gut feeling, it brings a data-centric view of what voters are actually doing — not what parties claim.
It also educates the public. By explaining probabilities, margins of error, and the concept of electoral swing, 338Canada helps voters understand that elections aren’t black and white. They’re shades of probability.
FAQ About 338Canada
Is 338Canada affiliated with any political party?
No. The site is independent and run by Philippe J. Fournier, who has a background in physics and statistics, not party politics.
How often are the numbers updated?
Usually weekly, but more frequently during active election campaigns. Big new polls often trigger updates.
How accurate is it?
In its projections across federal and provincial elections since 2019, its national popular vote estimates have been within 1–2 percentage points of the final result in most cases. Seat projections are accurate within a reasonable confidence range — especially in non-toss-up ridings.
Is it just for federal politics?
Not at all. The site covers all provinces with their own dedicated pages, simulators, and projections.
Why are some ridings labeled "Toss-Up"?
Those are seats where the model finds no clear statistical favorite. In those cases, the projected margin is too tight to call, even with detailed data.
Final Thought
If you’re serious about understanding Canadian elections — not just watching the horse race but actually getting why things shift — 338Canada should be on your radar. It blends polling, data science, demographics, and electoral history into one of the most useful forecasting tools out there.
It won’t tell you exactly what will happen. But it will show you what’s likely to happen — and where the real political battles are. That’s far more valuable than watching another shouting match on TV.
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